The nation's most populous state, reeling from staggering deficits, is in the throes of a political meltdown. Its Democratic governor is struggling to stave off an increasingly chaotic recall effort. And Republicans, with a splintered field of candidates, are being led in the public opinion polls by a world-famous, Austrian- born body-builder-turned-actor who has often not even voted, let alone sought public office before.
Furthermore, Terminator actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is a long- time friend and political supporter of President Bush's father, the 41st president. And the stakes are high for the White House, as control of the governorship could affect Bush's bid for re-election next year.
For now at least, Bush, the son, insists he is just watching from the sidelines.
On Thursday, though, he will probably get an earful as he starts a two-day tour of Southern California, mixing fund-raising and official business.
His aides say adamantly that he will not be appearing with Schwarzengger or any of the other GOP recall candidates at the Bush fund-raisers in San Diego and Irvine, Calif., or anywhere else.
But there's sure to be plenty of political buzz, despite the president's public hands-off recall policy.
"The White House has not been involved," spokeswoman Claire Buchan said, answering an inquiry to Bush's chief political strategist, Karl Rove.
The California recall is a matter for Californians, she said.
Democrats, seeking whatever political advantage they can muster, charge that Rove is behind the chaos, working to replace Gov. Gray Davis with a Republican eager to boost the president's re-election chances next year.
Bush lost California to Al Gore by 12 percentage points in 2000, and he remains not so popular in the heavily Democratic state.
But political strategists are quick to note that any incumbent president would much prefer to seek re-election with the aid of friendly governors and their usually vast political networks.
Besides, a key national Republican official said, Rove "is obsessed with winning California."
Its 55 electoral votes are the largest single Election Day prize. And should Bush break the Democratic hold of the last dozen years, he would be well on his way to victory.
At the very least, a Republican governor in California would help the Bush campaign enough that the Democratic presidential nominee would have to commit substantial resources and campaign time to the state.
However, some strategists see California in such bad shape that it may well be to the president's advantage to stay out of the recall fight, particularly since the Republicans themselves are divided.
"The recall is a disaster," the Republican official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "The president would be better off with a wildly unpopular governor sitting in Sacramento."
But the recall is on a political fast track now, with the surveys showing Davis in dire straits and Schwarzenegger leading the pack of more than 200 candidates to replace him.
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